How Wrong Was Rasmussen?

Very wrong.

The final #s aren’t in yet but it’s already clear that Rasmussen’s final poll #s missed in favor of Mitt Romney in every single swing state.

They also missed in favor of Romney when it comes to the national numbers (which are also not finalized yet.)

This is not a fluke. Rasmussen missed just as badly in favor of Republicans in 2008 and 2010.

Who got it right? Nate Silver. Silver predicted the correct winner in all 50 states (his analysis was the main basis for my own prediction – although I gave Florida to Obama earlier than he did based on the trend.)

This is also not a fluke, Silver nailed 2008 as well.

Rachel Maddow on President Obama’s Re-Election

President Obama won re-election with 332 electoral votes (exactly as I predicted last Friday.)

This is MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Obama’s big win:

Election Prediction: Obama 332 Electoral Votes

I predict President Obama will win re-election on Tuesday with at least 303 electoral votes (270 are needed to win the White House.)

According to Nate Silver at 538; Obama has at least 65% odds in states that add up to 303 electoral votes (Colorado at 65% & Virginia at 66% are the two weakest links.)

Obama would make it to 332 electoral votes with a victory in Florida which appears to be very close. Silver calls it a “toss-up” and has Obama’s odds of victory at 45%.

To get to 347, he would also have to win North Carolina which is a longer shot. Silver has Obama’s odds in NC at 20%.

In the end I think Obama will pull out Florida but probably fall just a little bit short in North Carolina for a total of 332 electoral votes (vs. 206 for Mitt Romney.)

The Popular Vote

Calling the national popular vote is a bit more difficult (and less important as it doesn’t technically mean anything.) National polling seems to indicate the race is closer than the state polling. Silver has Obama with a 2.1% lead nationally.

I think the likely voter models have been skewed a bit too much in favor of the Republicans and that in the end Obama will win nationally by a bit more than the polls suggest.

But my popular vote optimism is tempered somewhat by Hurricane Sandy’s possible impact on Election Day voting in the northeast. These are states where Obama is expected to rack up huge victories so lower than normal turn-out could lower his overall popular vote totals (while not really effecting his electoral prospects because he’s still a lock to win these states.)

That said; my popular vote prediction (somewhat based on the RAND methodology which I think makes a lot of sense) is Obama 51%, Romney 47% (yes… 47%, poetic justice for the man who dismissed 47% of Americans lazy moochers)

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Due to an upcoming vacation this will be my final post on this site before the election.

I voted early since I will be out of town on Election Day. If you haven’t voted yet; find your precinct information here.

184,000 New Private Sector Jobs

For the 32nd consecutive month the US economy has added private sector jobs.

In October 184,000 new private sector jobs were coupled with a loss of 13,000 government jobs for a total increase of 171,000 jobs in the monthly BLS report. (See Bush vs. Obama jobs record.)

The unemployment rate stayed below 8% at 7.9%. This is now two months in a row below 8% after months of the Republicans campaigning on the unemployment rate staying above 8%.

Despite GOP obstruction; the economy is improving and President Obama appears to be headed for re-election. (see Paul Krugman’s article on GOP Obstruction.)

Gallup’s Terrible Track Record

Yes, the most recent Gallup tracker has Romney up by 5% points (despite the fact that they have the incumbent President at 51% approval) but is this really something that Romney supporters should latch onto while ignoring the other polling evidence that suggests that Obama is clearly in the lead when it comes to the race to 270?

I used web.archive.org to find out what Gallup has said about the past four presidential races at about this time:

1996: On November 2, 1996 they had President Clinton ahead of Bob Dole by 16% points. A few days later Clinton won by 8.5% points.

2000: I already posted about how way off the mark Gallup was in 2000. Less than two weeks before the election they had Bush winning by 13% points, but ended up losing the popular vote by 0.5% points.

2004: On this day in 2004 (October 31, 2004) I found Gallup had Bush ahead by a 5% margin. Bush won the popular vote by 2.4% points.

2008: On this date in ’08 they had Obama winning by 3% in the traditional likely voter model (to be fair they did have Obama up by the eventual 7% margin in the “expanded” model.)

Conclusion

This is a truly terrible track record. You could have done better by guessing. To take Gallup’s national tracker as the gospel while ignoring 538/Nate Silver & PEC/Sam Wang is absurd.

New Polls: Obama Leads in Ohio, Virginia, & Florida

New polling from Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS has President Obama ahead by a solid 5% margin in Ohio and by 2% & 1% points in Virginia & Florida, respectively.

The significance of these Obama swing state leads is fully realized when you consider there is no realistic path to 270 electoral votes for Mitt Romney unless he wins all three of these states.

PPP / Ohio

PPP has a new Ohio poll out as well and they also have Obama up by 5% points in this crucial state.

Gallup on October 26th, 2000

These days Romney supporters are “clinging” to the Gallup tracker poll (the “Likely Voter” version anyway) as evidence that their candidate has a lead in this race and is likely to win on November 6th.

Today Gallup is showing Mitt Romney with a 5% point lead in their LV model (even though they say it’s tied among registered voters.)

But let’s put that # in context. Where was Gallup 12 years ago today? On October 26, 2000 Gallup had the race at:

George W. Bush 52%
Al Gore 39%

Gore went on to win the national vote on November 7th by 0.5%! Gallup missed by over 13% points less than two weeks before the election.

If you really want to know what the state of the presidential race is go to Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight and/or the Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium.

In 2008, Nate Silver called 49 out of 50 states correctly. Sam Wang’s methodology nailed every state in both 2004 & 2008. There’s really no comparison between Gallup’s tracking poll and these advanced poll aggregating systems as far as accuracy is concerned.

It’s ridiculous the way so many are acting like Gallup is the last word on where the race is considering how terrible their track record is.

President Obama Wins Final Debate In Lopsided Fashion

Tonight’s instant poll of undecided voters from CBS News gave President Obama a commanding victory of Mitt Romney in the final debate of the 2012 presidential election:

Obama: 53%, Romney 23%

In comparison, take a look back at the results of this same instant poll after each of the previous debates; Obama won the previous debate by a 37% to 30% margin, Joe Biden beat Paul Ryan 50% to 31% in the VP debate, and Mitt Romney lied his way to a 46% to 22% win in the first debate.

This 30% margin betters the 24% margin that Romney had in debate 1 and the 19% margin Biden had over Ryan in the VP debate making this the most convincing debate victory of the four.

One of the Many Debate Highlights for the President

President Obama Wins Huge Victory Over Overly Aggressive Mitt Romney

There were many great moments for the President (and likewise terrible moments for Mitt Romney) in tonight’s overwhelming debate victory for Obama but perhaps the best moment for the President (and worst for Romney) was this exchange over President Obama using the phrase word “terror” the day after the attacks in Libya:

The Last Thing We Should Do Is Turn Back Now

Very strong new ad from the Obama campaign narrated by Morgan Freeman:

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