2012 Presidential Poll: President Obama Leads GOP Challengers
By ThePresidentialCandidates.US on Apr 13, 2010 in Barack Obama
In a new CNN poll President Obama leads each of the top four Republican candidates for 2012 (results on the poll for the Republican primary below) by at least 8% points.
Obama 53%, Mitt Romney 45%
Obama 54%, Mike Huckabee 45%
Obama 55%, Sarah Palin 42%
Obama 55%, Newt Gingrich 43%
Each head to head shows President Obama comfortably over the 50% mark that incumbents are shooting for in a poll like this. I think this is most impressive considering Obama’s approval ratings are as low as they’ve been in his Presidency to date (he reached a new low of 45% on Gallup on Sunday & Monday, and is at 46% today.)
Basically this says to me that even if people are not overly pleased with Obama at the moment, they still prefer him over going back to the “bad old days” of a Republican in the White House.
This also says to me that Obama could win a huge landslide in 2012 if the country continues the rebound it seems to have started because of Obama’s policies. As Business Week recently reported: The Obama plan is working.
And by 2012 all of the lies about the Republicans told about health care reform will seem like old news as all of the positive realities of the reform become more and more clear. It will also become more and more clear that every single thing the Republicans said about health care reform was actually a lie.
Hopefully at least some voters will punish the GOP for trying to scare Americans with lies about health care reform for political purposes like they did, although I am not holding my breath. The average American voter’s memory doesn’t seem to go back all that far.
Republican Results
1. Mike Huckabee 24%
2. Mitt Romney 20%
3. Sarah Palin 15%
4. Newt Gingrich 14%
5. Ron Paul 8%
Basically this says to me that even if people are not overly pleased with Obama at the moment, they still prefer him over going back to the “bad old days” of a Republican in the White House.
It’s real thing
Grandpa Best Friend | Apr 17, 2010 | Reply
As one who does hardcore electoral statistics, I can tell you that Obama has the better hand of cards for 2012, no matter how you slice it.
The economy was actually taking another hit in 1936 as FDR firmly whipped Alf Landon 60-40.
In 1964, the economy was sputtering and the south was pissed off over the Civil Rights Act and still, LBJ won a massive landslide, 61-39 over Goldwater.
At this point in the game in 1982, Reagan’s numbers were even a tick lower than Obama’s are now. And Reagan came back to win a 58-42 landslide in 1984.
Bill Clinton’s numbers at this stage of the game in 1994 were under Obama’s, and his health care initiative had FAILED. The GOP of 1994 was also better organized than it is in 2010. And Clinton came back to trounce Bob Dole by 8 points in 1996.
GWB43 does not fit the re-election pattern as well. His popularity numbers were soaring after 9-11 and yet his re-election was a lean win against John Kerry, who (many do not know this fact) got the highest percentage of a losing candidate fighting against an incumbent in the entire history of the Union.
Winning percentage changes:
FDR increased his PV% by 3 points in 1936 over 1932.
Eisenhower increased his PV% by 2.2 points in 1956 over 1952.
We cannot compare Nixon correctly, as he went from a 3 man race in 1968 to a two man race in 1972.
Reagan increased his PV% by 8 points in 1984 over 1980. 1980 had a third party candidate (Anderson), who did get 6.6% of the PV ala Perot in 1996.
Clinton, in 2 three-man races, increased his PV% by 6 points in 1996 over 1992.
GWB43 increased his PV% by 3 points in 2004 over 2000.
FACIT:
Obama is poised to pick up between 3-5 points in 2012 and add 5 to 8 states to his column.
Only 4 times in 114 years has an incumbent been turned out of office, and in 3 of those four occasions, the incumbent was a republican:
Hoover in 1932
Ford in 1976
Carter in 1980
Bush 41 in 1992.
In most cases, the incumbent was re-elected and only in the case of Woodrow Wilson was his re-election win leaner than his initial win.
Many wish to compare Obama to Carter in the hope that he will also be a one term president, but statistically, the comparison to Ronald Reagan fits much better most of the time.
The 1st amendment guarantees us all the right to as much propaganda as we want. But demographic and electoral statistics tell me that the probability of Obama winning a LARGER landslide in 2012 than he won in 2008 is extremely high.
I did a complete statistical analysis to this in late 2007, here is the study:
http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.com/2007/11/1904-2004-end-analysis-part-4-two-term.html
bonncaruso | Aug 6, 2010 | Reply
really interesting post bonncaruso… I do think it’s funny how quickly people are writing off Obama just because his approval ratings aren’t so hot right now. people get so caught up in the day to day nonsense, they don’t look at the big picture enough.
admin | Aug 18, 2010 | Reply