21 Potential House Republican Targets

Update: I’ve set up this ActBlue fundraising page to donate to the opponents of 20 of these 21 (I left off MI-3 so it would only be districts where Obama won by at least 4%.)

Following up on my previous posts today, this is a list of 21 Republican House seats that the Democrats may want to focus on trying to “flip” this November (along with holding onto the seats they have of course.) I compiled this list based mostly on the Presidential election results in 2008 – If Obama won the district by more than 3 points then they are included here. I also included an open seat (MI-3) where the ’08 election was a toss-up (49 to 49) and a Republican is retiring.

I’m sure there’s some very good reasons why some of these targets are a waste of time. I’m no Nate Silver. This is a pretty rudimentary analysis. It’s really just meant to get some ideas “out there” for which Republican House members would be the best ones to target. Perhaps there are 10 to 15 of these that would really be worth targeting. A few of them look like obvious gimmes (LA-2 being the most obvious of all.)

CA – 25 | David Dreier | Obama + 4
CA – 45 | Mary Bono Mack | Obama + 5
Delaware | Open | Obama + 25
IA – 4 | Tom Lathan | Obama + 8
IL – 6 | Peter Roskam | Obama + 13
IL – 10 | Open | Obama +23
IL – 13 | Judy Biggert | Obama +10
IL – 16 | Donald Manzullo | Obama + 7
LA – 2 | Joeseph Cao | Obama + 52 (that’s not a typo.)
MI – 6 | Fred Upton | Obama + 10
MI – 8 | Mike Rogers | Obama + 7
MI – 11 | Thad McCotter | Obama + 9
MN – 3 | Erik Paulson | Obama + 6
NJ – 2 | Frank Lobiondo | Obama + 9
OH – 12 | Pat Tiberi | Obama + 9
PA – 6 | Jim Gerlach | Obama + 17
PA – 15 | Charles Dent | Obama + 13
VA – 10 | Frank Wolf | Obama + 7
WA – 8 | Dave Reichert | Obama + 15
WI – 1 | Paul Ryan | Obama + 4
MI – 3 | Open | Obama + 0