A Closer Look At The Zogby Poll

As part of it’s methodology the Zogby poll uses the party breakdown from the previous Presidential election to weight it’s poll. The problem with this methodology is that there are now many more Democrats than there was in 2004 (and likewise, less Republicans.)

Zogby releases their internal numbers (Obama is winning 87% of Democrats, McCain 84% of Republicans, Obama is winning Independents 50% to 35%.) When weighting those internal numbers with Rasmussen’s current party ID numbers (D 39.7, R 33.0, I 27.3) Obama’s lead is 52% to 41% nationally. That’s up from 50% to 42% using the 2004 weighting (their official numbers.)

Considering that many think that even those 39.7% to 33.0% party ID numbers don’t accurately reflect the dominance of Democrats nationally (because of all of the new Democratic registrations) it’s arguable that Obama’s lead is even higher.

Of course polls don’t elect the President, only real votes do. That’s why Obama supporters cannot be complacent because of good polling data. No one can rest until November 5th.