Could Sarah Palin Be The 2012 Republican Nominee?

Many of us have a hard time imagining why someone as obviously unqualified as Sarah Palin would even be considered as a possible nominee for President but recent polling has shown that she actually appears to have a pretty good shot at winning the 2012 Republican nomination.

35% of Republicans say they would be “very likely” to vote for Sarah Palin for President in this recent Gallup poll. When you include the “somewhat likely” you get a total of 72% of Republicans who would support Palin for President.

Weak Numbers For A General Election

In a way that 72% actually kind of a low number. I’d be surprised if the number of Democrats who would support President Obama in such a poll would fall below 90% (his current approval rating among Democrats is 90%) and when you consider there are significantly more Democrats than Republicans, that looks like a recipe for disaster in a general election. And to be sure, as of right now it seems extremely unlikely that Sarah Palin could beat Barack Obama in a general election. But in a “perfect storm” type of situation, anything is possible. I’ll get to that more later.

Winning The Republican Nomination

But while she would likely be a weaker general election candidate than Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty (other rumored 2012 candidates) I think Palin has far stronger support among the Republican base than other potential candidates. That 35% of Republicans who are “very likely” to support her for President are the type of people who get out and vote in the primaries. They are the type of people who may donate to her campaign. They are the type of people who may volunteer to try to get her elected. They are also the type of people who hate Barack Obama so much that it won’t matter how well the country is doing in 2012, they’ll still be fired up with anger against the President.

The Perfect Storm

So how could Palin win the nomination and then beat President Obama in the 2012 election? I think the former is quite possible, the latter seems highly unlikely but history has shown just about anything is possible. Remember, George W. Bush was elected twice. The second time he even got more votes than his opponent!

I think the scenario that would give her the best chance to win the nomination is if Mike Huckabee does not run and she is facing just the usual boring run of the mill candidates like Romney & Pawlenty who really don’t excite anyone. Huckabee not running is important because I think they appeal to a similar demographic and Huckabee is actually a much better politician than she is. On the other hand it is possible she could paint Huckabee as a “big government” Republican (because he is) and take him out. On the other hand he could try to paint her as a lunatic (because she is) and take her out (but I think this strategy could backfire in a big way due to her immense popularity with the GOP base.)

So how could she beat President Obama? Well obviously things would have to be going extremely poorly. If some of the following things are true then I think Obama would be vulnerable (even to a candidate as bad as Palin.)

1. The economy has not improved or has got even worse. This is obviously the single most important factor. If the economy is doing well in 2012 Obama will be virtually impossible to beat regardless of who he is running against. On the other hand if it’s doing poorly he will have to do a very good political job of shifting blame to the Bush admin. and of making people scared of his opponent taking over (and with Palin as the opponent, that may be quite easy.)

2. No real health care reform passed. If no public option is included then health care reform is a failure. It’s as simple as that. And if he fails to make good on this promise many people who most strongly supported him in 2008 will feel extremely let down and may not donate to him or campaign for him. The White House must realize the extreme importance of real health care reform. The American people need a public option. If we don’t get it, we will hold President Obama (and the Senate & House Democrats) accountable.

3. Violence in Iraq & Afghanistan. If things are going poorly in one or both of these wars that could significantly dampen excitement for a second Obama term. Obama needs to be able to say that Iraq War is over in 2012 without there being any sort of qualifying statement.

4. No follow through on gay rights. The gay & lesbian community strongly supported Obama in 2012 and while they certainly won’t be voting for Sarah Palin, they may not donate to and campaign for President Obama if he does not follow through on his promises.

5. Unforeseen disaster. Something like Katrina or 9/11 which entirely changes the political dynamic.

2012, Gallup