Election Prediction: Obama 332 Electoral Votes

I predict President Obama will win re-election on Tuesday with at least 303 electoral votes (270 are needed to win the White House.)

According to Nate Silver at 538; Obama has at least 65% odds in states that add up to 303 electoral votes (Colorado at 65% & Virginia at 66% are the two weakest links.)

Obama would make it to 332 electoral votes with a victory in Florida which appears to be very close. Silver calls it a “toss-up” and has Obama’s odds of victory at 45%.

To get to 347, he would also have to win North Carolina which is a longer shot. Silver has Obama’s odds in NC at 20%.

In the end I think Obama will pull out Florida but probably fall just a little bit short in North Carolina for a total of 332 electoral votes (vs. 206 for Mitt Romney.)

The Popular Vote

Calling the national popular vote is a bit more difficult (and less important as it doesn’t technically mean anything.) National polling seems to indicate the race is closer than the state polling. Silver has Obama with a 2.1% lead nationally.

I think the likely voter models have been skewed a bit too much in favor of the Republicans and that in the end Obama will win nationally by a bit more than the polls suggest.

But my popular vote optimism is tempered somewhat by Hurricane Sandy’s possible impact on Election Day voting in the northeast. These are states where Obama is expected to rack up huge victories so lower than normal turn-out could lower his overall popular vote totals (while not really effecting his electoral prospects because he’s still a lock to win these states.)

That said; my popular vote prediction (somewhat based on the RAND methodology which I think makes a lot of sense) is Obama 51%, Romney 47% (yes… 47%, poetic justice for the man who dismissed 47% of Americans lazy moochers)


Due to an upcoming vacation this will be my final post on this site before the election.

I voted early since I will be out of town on Election Day. If you haven’t voted yet; find your precinct information here.

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1 Comment(s)

  1. looks like I nailed the popular vote too; it’s going to end up 51% to 47% in the final tally -> http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/26/romneys-final-share-of-the-vote-you-guessed-it-47-percent/

    ThePresidentialCandidates.US | Nov 26, 2012 | Reply

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