These days Romney supporters are “clinging” to the Gallup tracker poll (the “Likely Voter” version anyway) as evidence that their candidate has a lead in this race and is likely to win on November 6th.
Today Gallup is showing Mitt Romney with a 5% point lead in their LV model (even though they say it’s tied among registered voters.)
But let’s put that # in context. Where was Gallup 12 years ago today? On October 26, 2000 Gallup had the race at:
George W. Bush 52%
Al Gore 39%
Gore went on to win the national vote on November 7th by 0.5%! Gallup missed by over 13% points less than two weeks before the election.
In 2008, Nate Silver called 49 out of 50 states correctly. Sam Wang’s methodology nailed every state in both 2004 & 2008. There’s really no comparison between Gallup’s tracking poll and these advanced poll aggregating systems as far as accuracy is concerned.
It’s ridiculous the way so many are acting like Gallup is the last word on where the race is considering how terrible their track record is.