Pew National Poll: Obama 52% McCain 36%

By ThePresidentialCandidates.US on Oct 28, 2008 in Barack Obama

A Pew Research national poll (1,325 registered voters) has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 52% to 36% and perhaps even more impressively, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead in their poll among those who have already voted (15% of the sample.)

Another good sign for Obama is that 74% of his support is now “strong.” That’s in comparison to just 56% of McCain’s support. Not only is “strong” support seemingly more likely to vote, they are also extremely unlikely to change their opinion.

It should be noted that this poll is probably an outlier, it’s unlikely that Obama’s lead is actually this large. In fact in the daily tracking polls, Obama’s lead is significantly smaller (although still reasonably comfortable with just a week to go until election day.)

Daily Tracking Polls

DailyKos/Research 2000: Obama 50, McCain 43 (+7)
Reuters/Zogby: Obama 49, McCain 45 (+4)
Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 46 (+5)
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 50, McCain 42 (+8)
Gallup: Obama 52, McCain 42 (+10)
ABC/WaPo: Obama 52, McCain 45 (+7)

The Gallup & ABC/WaPo polls haven’t updated yet for today so those are yesterday’s numbers. Averaging those tracking polls together gives Obama a 7 point lead which is very significant because there’s only one week left and it will be difficult to get voters to change their mind at this point. Especially because quite a lot of them have already voted.

So who is right? Pew or the trackers? We’ll have to wait until Election Day to find out. For a great analysis of all of the polling go to FiveThirtyEight.com

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