PPP: Ron Paul Nearly Tied For First In Iowa

A new PPP poll for the January 3rd Iowa caucuses has Ron Paul essentially tied (within the margin of error) for first place with Newt Gingrich:

Newt Gingrich 22% (-5 from last week)
Ron Paul 21% (+3)
Mitt Romney 16% (—)
Michele Bachmann 11% (-2)
Rick Perry 9% (—)
Rick Santorum 8% (+2)
Jon Huntsman 5% (+1)
Gary Johnson 1% (—)

Gingrich’s Favorable Rating Drops

Gingrich went from a +31 (61/30) favorable/unfavorable rating last week to just a +12 (52/40) this week. +12 is quite weak when you consider that this is a favorable rating only among Republican voters.

Paul’s Favorable Rating Rises

Paul went from +14 (52/38) last week to +30 (61/31) this week. When you consider that Paul’s popularity is growing and that he’s now essentially tied for first place in the polls along with his organizational advantage over Gingrich and it seems that Ron Paul may now actually be the favorite to win Iowa.

Absolutely Sure

Yes, Ron Paul really can win Iowa. According to this PPP poll; Among Iowa voters who are absolutely sure of their choice Paul holds a significant 29% to 21% edge over Gingrich.

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