How President Obama’s Gallup Approval #s Compare

President Obama currently has a 46% approval rating in Gallup’s daily tracking poll (and a 48% to 44% head to head lead over Mitt Romney.) A President’s approval rating is generally seen as the #1 indicator of whether or not he will be reelected or not and so it seems useful to compare where the President stands today compared to where previous presidents stood at this time of year during their reelection campaigns:

Gallup Approval Ratings for Presidents in Late June/Early July of their 4th year:

Ronald Reagan in 1984: 53% (won by 18%.)
Bill Clinton in 1996: 52% (won by 8%.)
George W. Bush in 2004: 47% (won by 2%.)
Barack Obama in 2012: 46% (???)
George HW Bush in 1992: 38% (lost by 5%.)
Jimmy Carter in 1980: 31% (lost by 10%.)

It looks like we’re in for a close election with the President having a slight advantage based on approval ratings alone. I believe that because Mitt Romney is such a terrible opponent that Obama’s position is better than it appears. Nate Silver currently has the odds of Obama’s reelection at a healthy 69%.

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