Senate Prospects For Democrats Are Looking Up

A quick look at the upper left side of FiveThirtyEight.com gives the impression that the Democratic Party is likely to lose quite a few seats in the Senate this fall, but the polls numbers that Nate Silver has been using for his projections are becoming outdated as the Republicans (with a huge assist from the “Tea Party”) look to be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating unelectable far right wing lunatics in their primaries.

A great example of this is in Nevada where the incumbent Democratic candidate (Harry Reid) is not very popular and looked likely to be defeated this fall. But now a Tea Party candidate named Sharon Angle has taken the lead in polls for the Republican nomination.

This is great news for Harry Reid because he now holds a 6 point lead in general election polls against Angle. Compare this 6 point lead to the 10+ points he was down in similar polls in January and it becomes clear that while Harry Reid may not be much more popular than he was back then, when people realize what the alternative is (crazy Republicans) they realize that they’re better off sticking with Reid.

Taking a closer look at the 538 numbers I think it is likely that the Republicans will win Democratic seats in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Delaware. The Republican candidates have large leads in these races and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a Democratic comeback.

But I do not believe that the Republicans will be making the previously predicted pickups in Pennsylvania (where Joe Sestak is a far better candidate than Arlen Specter and he’s going up against a real far right wing lunatic Republican) or Nevada. Mark Kirk in Illinois doesn’t appear to have much of a chance now either considering his lies about his past military service have become known.

In all, I think those four seats are all the GOP are going to get from the Democrats. If that’s the case it will bring the Democrats down to 55 seats in the Senate. But, that’s not the whole story because there are possible pickups for the Democratic Party too!

I believe the Democrats will pick up Florida. Marco Rubio is unelectable. Whether it’s Kendrick Meek or Charlie Crist running as an Independent but caucusing with the Democratic majority, the Democrats will be picking up this seat.

I believe they will also pick up Kentucky where the Tea Party was able to nominate an absolute nutbar in Rand Paul as the Republican nominee. This guy clearly has no business being in the Senate and even in a red state like Kentucky I think he stands little chance of winning as the general voting public becomes aware of his stances on the issues.

I also believe the Democrats will pick up the seat in Ohio. Polls now are close (a dead heat) but I think as the economy continues to improve and big job numbers come out in the coming months, overall approval for the D’s will rise and it will take all D boats up with it. They should also pick up the seat in Missouri.

If all of the above predictions are true, the Democrats are back up to the 59 seats they started with!

Colorado is another possible Republican pick-up with close polls right now, but I think (like in Ohio) that the Democrats will pull this one out in the end.

Is there any chance of the Democrats actually gaining another seat and making it back to a 60 vote majority? It does seem like a long shot at the moment but there are a couple possibilities: North Carolina & New Hampshire.

Possibly a more likely turn of events (for reaching 60 again) would be that the two ladies in Maine realize they have no chance of winning a primary in the new far right wing Republican Party and they move on over to the Democratic caucus.