State By State Pollster.com Vs. Results

Pollster.com is a site which takes all of the polls and averages them together.

In this entry I’m going take a look at the Pollster numbers state by state vs the results.

Obama’s advantage (or disadvantage) in each state in the polls vs. the results:

STATE: polls vs. results (Obama under or over perform)

Alabama: -22 vs. -21 (+1)
Alaska: -16 vs. -26 (-10)
Arizona: -5 vs. -9 (-4)
Arkansas: -10 vs. -20 (-10)
California: +19 vs. +24 (+5)
Colorado: +8 vs. +7 (-1)
Connecticut: +21 vs. +21 (0)
Delaware: +25 vs. +23 (-2)
DC: +68 vs. +84 (+16)
Florida: +2 vs. +3 (+1)
Georgia: -3 vs. -5 (-2)
Hawaii: +31 vs. +45 (+14)
Idaho: -23 vs. -26 (-3)
Illinois: +23 vs. +23 (0)
Indiana: -1 vs +1 (+2) ***
Iowa: +12 vs. +9 (-3)
Kansas: -17 vs. -16 (+1)
Kentucky: -13 vs. -16 (-3)
Louisiana: -10 vs. -19 (-9)
Maine: +17 vs. +18 (+1)
Michigan: +15 vs. +16 (+1)
Minnesota: +12 vs. +10 (-2)
Mississippi: -10 vs. -13 (-3)
Missouri: +1 vs. 0 (-1) ???
Montana: -2 vs. -3 (-1)
Nebraska: -19 vs. -16 (+3)
Nevada: +7 vs. +12 (+5)
New Hampshire: +12 vs. +11 (-1)
New Jersey: +15 vs. +15 (0)
New Mexico: +9 vs. +15 (+6)
New York: +26 vs. +25 (-1)
North Carolina: +1 vs. 0 (-1) ???
North Dakota: -1 vs. -8 (-7)
Ohio: +3 vs. +4 (+1)
Oklahoma: -26 vs. -32 (-6)
Oregon: +16 vs. +12 (-4)
Pennsylvania: +7 vs. +11 (+4)
Rhode Island: +19 vs. +28 (+9)
South Carolina: -8 vs. -9 (-1)
South Dakota: -8 vs. -8 (0)
Tennessee: -12 vs. -15 (-3)
Texas: -13 vs. -12 (+1)
Utah: -24 vs. -29 (-5)
Vermont: +27 vs. +36 (+9)
Virginia: +6 vs. +5 (-1)
Washington: +13 vs. +16 (+3)
West Virginia: -12 vs. -13 (-1)
Wisconsin: +12 vs. +13 (+1)
Wyoming: -31 vs. -32 (-1)

It looks like in a lot of cases McCain’s final win was a bit better than predicted in some heavy red southern states but much more importantly Obama’s final edge was significantly stronger in swing states like Nevada & New Mexico than predicted.

The final leader in the pollster average was the winner in all but one state: Indiana. McCain was up by 1 in the final pollster average but Obama won it by 1. The final outcome is unclear in North Carolina & Missouri and Pollster.com had it right there as a very close race in both cases.

Overall the polls were pretty much right.

It should be noted that in some states the results may change slightly when they are finalized as there are still some votes to be counted in some cases.

2008, Election Results, Polls, Pollster