Democratic Senators Harry Reid (Nevada) and Michael Bennett (Colorado) were both predicted to lose by the pollsters. They did not. Just last week the Republican leaning pollster Rasmussen had the Tea Party nut Sharron Angle ahead of Reid 49% to 45%. Nate Silver’s model over at 538 predicted a 50% to 47% win for Angle. [...]

This is a really brilliant video by Rachel Maddow that puts the accomplishments of President Obama and the Democratic congress in perspective. Maddow really makes a great case that for the most part they put the future of this country ahead of their own immediate political futures. And that history will judge these two years [...]

According to this new Marist poll President Obama’s approval rating is up to 48% (vs. 43% disapproval.) This is up 5% points from a Marist poll earlier this month. But most encouraging for Democrats has to be the generic House ballot where the Democrats actually have a 47% to 41% lead among registered voters which [...]

This graph shows the movement towards the Democrats in the generic ballot this month: I should note this graph does not include Rasmussen because of their clear allegiance to the Republican Party and their reputation for “narrative setting.” This movement towards the Democrats combined with evidence that generic house ballot polls are actually underestimating support [...]

According to Nate Silver’s analysis at 538 the following Senate races are currently within a margin of 10 points: State | Margin | Current Illinois | Even | D Washington | D +1 | D Florida | R +1 | R Nevada | R +1 | D California | D +2 | D Wisconsin | [...]

There’s good news for the Democratic Party when comparing June polls to July polls in eight competitive Senate races. In all 8 of of the races where PPP polled in both June and July the prospects for the Democratic candidate looked better in July. Democratic pick-ups of Republican seats are now looking quite possible in [...]

North Carolina hasn’t gone Democratic since 1976 (Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford) and it went for Bush by 12 to 13% in both 2000 & 2004 so it seems like a long shot as a state that Obama can flip from red to blue but the Obama campaign appears to be investing a serious amount [...]

Watch This: Read This. Did McCain steal his “Cross In The Dirt” story?

Today’s Gallup daily tracking poll has Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by 6% (48% to 42%.) This is Obama’s biggest lead in this poll since July 27th (when he was up by 8%.) This appears to be evidence that McCain’s trivial “celeb” attack ads on Obama are gaining no traction and may in fact [...]

Nate Silver, the creator of one of my favorite websites 538, was on MSNBC’s Countdown with Keith Olbermann talking about his polling techniques last night. As of today he has Obama ahead of McCain 295 to 243 in electoral votes. 270 are needed to win the Presidency. Watch Silver on Countdown: