Zogby State Polls Give Obama Big Advantage

Zogby has released a large amount of state poll data. Click here to check out their interactive polling map.

The overall numbers look like this:

Obama: 273 electoral votes (270 are needed to win the Presidency.)
McCain: 160 electoral votes.
Too Close To Call: 105 electoral votes.

What Are The “Too Close To Call” States?

Below are the “too close to call” states according to Zogby along with their latest polling numbers in parenthesis. Of course also you must consider that as of right now they have Obama winning enough electoral votes to win the Presidency even if he loses all of these close states.

+ Virginia (Obama 44%, McCain 39%, Barr 5%) — 13 EV.
+ North Carolina (Obama 47%, McCain 38%, Barr 4%) — 15 EV.
+ South Carolina (Obama 42%, McCain 41%, Barr 6%) — 8 EV.
+ Ohio (Obama 43%, McCain 38%, Barr 7%) — 20 EV.
+ Indiana (McCain 40%, Obama 39%, Barr 7%) — 11 EV.
+ Missouri (Obama 42%, McCain 38%, Barr 6%) — 11 EV.
+ Arkansas (Obama 41%, McCain 39%, Barr 4%) — 6 EV.
+ Arizona (Obama 42%, McCain 39%, Barr 7%) — 10 EV.
+ Nevada (Obama 38%, McCain 38%, Barr 9%) — 5 EV.
+ Montana (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.
+ North Dakota (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.

There are a lot of surprising things about those polling numbers and they are almost all positive for Obama. Probably the most shocking is Obama being up in McCain’s home state of Arkansas. But almost as shocking is how strong Bob Barr is polling. If Barr does as well as he is in these Zogby polls, McCain stands almost no chance of winning the election.

Note: I’m leaving Nader off because he got less than 1% in most states. It does not look like Nader will play a significant role in this election.

What Are The Obama States?

+ California (Obama 52%, McCain 32%, Barr 5%) — 55 EV.
+ Oregon (Obama 49%, McCain 33%, Barr 6%) — 7 EV.
+ Washington State (Obama 48%, McCain 33%, Barr 5%) — 11 EV.
+ Hawaii (No Zogby Poll Data) — 4 EV.
+ Colorado (Obama 40%, McCain 38%, Barr 8%) — 9 EV.
+ New Mexico (Obama 49%, McCain 33%, Barr 9%) — 5 EV.
+ Minnesota (Obama 48%, McCain 32%, Barr 8%) — 10 EV.
+ Iowa (Obama 42%, McCain 38%, Barr 8%) — 7 EV.
+ Wisconsin (Obama 48%, McCain 38%, Barr 4%) — 10 EV.
+ Michigan (Obama 47%, McCain 33%, Barr 6%) — 17 MV.
+ Illinois (Obama 52%, McCain 32%, Barr 5%) — 21 EV.
+ Maine (No Zogby Poll Data) — 4 EV.
+ New Hampshire (Obama 40%, McCain 37%, Barr 10%) — 4 EV.
+ Vermont (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.
+ Massachusetts (Obama 54%, McCain 29%, Barr 5%) — 12 EV.
+ New York (Obama 51%, McCain 30%, Barr 4%) — 31 EV.
+ Rhode Island (No Zogby Poll Data) — 4 EV.
+ Connecticut (Obama 48%, McCain 32%, Barr 5%) — 7 EV.
+ New Jersey (Obama 49%, McCain 36%, Barr 3%) — 15 EV.
+ Pennsylvania (Obama 46%, McCain 36%, Barr 5%) — 21 EV.
+ Maryland (Obama 54%, McCain 30%, Barr 6%) — 10 EV.
+ Delaware (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.
+ DC (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.

Again Barr is doing surprisingly well in these Zogby polls – if he does this well on election day it’s hard to imagine how McCain has any chance at all.

It’s somewhat confusing as to why some of these states where Obama seemingly has a slim lead like Colorado where he’s only up by 2% are colored blue for Obama while a state like North Carolina where he’s up by 9% is colored purple for “toss-up.” I suggest that means that Zogby is somewhat cautious about his own polling data – or that there are deeper numbers within these overall numbers that make them feel more confident about Colorado going for Obama than they are for North Carolina.

In most cases Obama has a very large lead in his states, there looks to be very little room for McCain to play offense, and McCain has to win one of these states (and all of the toss-up states) to have a chance.

What Are The McCain States?

Florida (McCain 43%, Obama 39%, Barr 6%) — 27 EV.
Georgia (McCain 44%, Obama 38%, Barr 8%) — 15 EV.
Alabama (McCain 47%, Obama 36%, Barr 4%) — 9 EV.
Mississippi (No Zogby Poll Data) — 6 EV.
Tennessee (McCain 41%, Obama 36%, Barr 7%) — 11 EV.
Kentucky (McCain 44%, Obama 39%, Barr 3%) — 8 EV.
West Virginia (No Zogby Poll Data) — 5 EV.
Louisiana (McCain 47%, Obama 40%, Barr 4%) — 9 EV.
Texas (McCain 42%, Obama 39%, Barr 6%) — 34 EV.
Oklahoma (McCain 42%, Obama 37%, Barr 9%) — 7 EV.
Kansas (No Zogby Poll Data) — 6 EV.
Nebraska (No Zogby Poll Data) — 5 EV.
South Dakota (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.
Wyoming (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.
Idaho (No Zogby Poll Data) — 4 EV.
Utah (No Zogby Poll Data) — 5 EV.
Alaska (No Zogby Poll Data) — 3 EV.

McCain has a very soft lead in many states that should be deep red. He’s only up by 3% in Texas & 5% in Oklahoma. In fact the biggest lead McCain has in any state with Zogby’s numbers is the 11% lead he has in Alabama, although it should be noted that McCain almost certainly has a larger lead than that in some of the states with no polling data (like Utah.)

If Obama wins every state that Zogby currently gives him the lead in, then he will win 356 Electoral Votes, far more than the 270 he needs to be elected President.